Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 13 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern
• Time of formation: 16 Feb 2017
• Trend bias: Near term down
The Australian dollar rallied this month after holding above previous support at 81.50, suggesting the erratic rise from this recent low is still in progress and bullishness is seen for this move to extend further gain to 85.75 resistance, break there would suggest recent fall from 88.15 (this year’s high formed made in Feb) has ended at 81.50 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to 86.00, then towards 86.40-50 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 87.00, risk from there has increased for a retreat later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 84.50) and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 84.20) should hold, bring another rise later. A daily close below support at 83.75 would abort and suggest top is formed instead, risk test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 83.56), break there would confirm and extend further weakness 83.00-10 which is likely to hold on first testing. Below this level would suggest the erratic rise from 81.50 has ended and bring further subsequent decline to 82.50-55 first.
Recommendation: Buy at 84.50 for 86.50 with stop below 83.50.
On the weekly chart, aussie continued finding good support at 81.80 and has staged a strong rebound this month, suggesting the erratic rise from 81.50 is still in progress and further gain to 85.75-80, then 86.40-50 would be seen, however, break of 87.50 resistance is needed to confirm the pullback from 88.15 (this year’s high) has ended, bring retest of this level later. Looking head, only above 88.15 would indicate early uptrend has resumed and encourage for headway to 88.50, then 89.00-10 but price should falter well below psychological resistance at 90.00.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 84.40-50 cannot be ruled out, reckon support at 83.75 would hold and bring another rise later. Only a weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 83.55) would abort and risk weakness to 83.00 and possibly towards 82.55-60 but said strong support at 81.80 should remain intact. Looking ahead, only break of support at 81.80 support would revive bearishness and signal recovery from 81.50 has ended, bring retest of this level, below there would extend the retreat from 88.15 top for a stronger retracement of early upmove to support at 81.10-15, a weekly close below there would retain bearishness and suggest the rise from 72.50 has ended, then further fall to 80.50 and possibly psychological support at 80.00 would follow.
