Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Marubozu
• Time of formation: 14 Nov 2016
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 15 Feb 2017
• Trend bias: Down
USD/JPY – 111.31
As dollar staged a strong rebound after falling marginally to 108.82, suggesting low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 111.80, then towards 112.25-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 114.39-108.82), however, reckon upside would be limited to 112.90-00 and bring retreat later this week or early next month.
On the downside, whilst pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 110.48) is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 110.00-10 and bring another rebound later. Only below said support at 108.82 would abort and signal the fall from 114.39 is still in progress and may extend weakness towards recent low at 108.13 which is likely to hold from here due to oversold condition, risk from there is seen for another rebound later.
Recommendation : Sell at 112.25 for 110.25 with stop above 113.25 or buy at 110.00 for 112.00 with stop below 109.00.
On the weekly chart, Dollar’s rebound after finding good support at 108.82 formed a white candlestick with a long lower shadow, suggesting low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 111.80, then towards 112.25-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 114.39-108.82), however, reckon upside would be limited to 112.90-00 and price should falter below the Kijun-Sen (now at 113.37), bring another decline later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 110.00-10 and bring another rise later. Below 109.85-90 would bring weakness to 109.25-30 but break there is needed to revive bearishness and signal the rebound from 108.82 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend weakness to previous chart support at 108.13. Looking ahead, a drop below this level would signal the fall from 118.66 top has resumed and extend decline towards previous resistance at 107.49.
