Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting doji
• Time of formation: 02 May 2016
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing
• Time of formation: 5 May 2017
• Trend bias: Up
USD/CAD – 1.3222
Although the greenback extended recent decline and dropped quite sharply to 1.3165 last week, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.3380-85 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3418) would limit upside and bring another decline later to 1.3200-10 but break of 1.3191 support is needed to signal the rebound from 1.3165 has ended, bring retest of this level. Looking ahead, break of 1.3165 would confirm recent fall from 1.3794 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3100-10, however, only break of support at 1.3056 would retain bearishness and add credence to our view that recent entire rise from 1.2461 has ended at 1.3794 earlier, bring further fall to 1.3009 support but price should stay above 1.2969 (previous chart support).
On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.3380-85 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3418) and bring another decline later. A daily close above previous support at 1.3425-30 would defer and suggest a temporary low is formed instead, risk retracement of recent decline to 1.3475-80 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3794-1.3164), then towards resistance at 1.3542 but price should falter below 1.3555 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later.
Recommendation: Sell again at 1.3410 for 1.3210 with stop above 1.3510.
On the weekly chart, last week’s selloff formed a long black candlestick, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.3794 earlier, although the greenback found support at 1.3165 and recovered, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3410-20 and bring another decline, below said support at 1.3165 would extend the fall from 1.3794 top to 1.3080-85 and later towards 1.3000-10, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous chart support at 1.2969, bring rebound later.
On the upside, although initial recovery to 1.3410-20 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to last week’s high at 1.3471 and bring another decline later. Only a weekly close above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3480) would defer and suggest first leg of decline from 1.3794 top has ended, risk a stronger rebound towards 1.3547 resistance but still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3600-10, bring another decline. Above 1.3635-40 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.3690-00 but still reckon upside would be limited and price should falter well below said resistance at 1.3794, bring another decline.
