Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 16 Jan 2017
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 18 Apr 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
GBP/USD – 1.2655
Although cable did recover after falling to 1.2635 earlier this month and consolidation above this level would be seen, still reckon upside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2842) and bearishness remains of the fall from 1.3048 top to bring retracement of recent upmove, below 1.2635 support would add credence to this near term bearish view, bring correction of recent upmove to previous resistance at 1.2616, a daily close below this level would encourage for further weakness to 1.2550, then 1.2500 support but oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2440-50 and price should stay well above key support at 1.2365, bring rebound later.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.2818 resistance and the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2842) should hold, bring another decline. A daily close above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2842) would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.2885-90 but price should falter well below said resistance at 1.2978 and bring another decline later. Only a sustained breach above this level would suggest the correction from 1.3048 top has ended and bring further gain towards this level, a break of this level would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove from 1.1986 low (Jan low) for retracement of early downtrend to 1.3050-60, then 1.3100. having said that, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3140-50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986) and reckon 1.3200 would hold.
Recommendation: Hold short entered at 1.2800 for 1.2600 with stop above 1.2900.
On the weekly chart, as cable has continued trading within near term established range, suggesting further sideways trading would be seen, however, if our view that a temporary top possibly formed at 1.3048 is correct, upside would be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2842) and bring another test of 1.2635 support, below there would bring further fall to previous resistance at 1.2616, a sustained breach below this level would add credence to this view and signal correction of recent upmove has commenced for subsequent weakness to 1.2550-60, however, still reckon downside would be limited and previous support at 1.2515 should remain intact, bring rebound later.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.2818 and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2842) should hold, bring another decline. Above 1.2900 would defer but only break of resistance at 1.2978 would signal the retreat from 1.3048 has ended, bring retest of this level first, once this recent high is penetrated, this would signal the erratic upmove from 1.1986 low (2017 low) has resumed, bring retracement of early decline to 1.3090-00, then towards 1.3140-50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986) but price should falter well below 1.3200-10, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
