AUD/JPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Weekly 



    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star 
   

    •    Time of formation: 13 Mar 2017 
   

    •    Trend bias: Down



Daily



    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern 
   

    •    Time of formation: 16 Feb 2017 
   

    •    Trend bias: Near term down





Although the Australian dollar rebounded last week to as high as 84.55, the subsequent retreat has retained our bearishness and as long as this level holds, consolidation with mild downside bias remains for another decline, below 82.65-70 would bring weakness to 82.00 but a daily close below there is needed to signal the rebound from 81.49 low has ended, bring retest of this level later. A drop below this level would extend recent decline from 88.15 top to support at 81.10-15, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 80.00 psychological support would hold from here, bring rebound later.

On the upside, whilst marginal recovery from here cannot be ruled out, as long as said resistance at 84.55 holds, prospect of another decline to aforesaid downside targets remains. Only a break above said resistance at 84.55 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 85.00-10 but said resistance at 85.75 should remain intact, bring another decline later.




Recommendation: Hold short entered at 83.65 for 81.65 with stop above 84.65.

On the weekly chart, although aussie found support at 82.70 and rebounded, still reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 84.50) would limit upside and bring another decline, below 83.00 would bring test of said support at 82.70 but break of 82.00 is needed to signal the rebound from 81.49 has ended, bring retest of this level later. A drop below this level would extend the fall from 88.15 top to support at 81.10-15, a weekly close below there would retain bearishness and suggest the rise from 72.50 has ended, then further fall to 80.50 and possibly psychological support at 80.00 would follow.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 84.50) and bring another decline. A weekly close above resistance at 84.55 would suggest low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 85.00, then towards resistance at 85.75 but only break there would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring further subsequent gain to 86.00 and then 86.50-60, however, price should falter below resistance at 87.50.