Weekly
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
   •   Time of formation: 20 Feb 2017
   •   Trend bias: Up
Daily
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
   •   Time of formation: 1 Sep 2016
   •   Trend bias: Near term down
EUR/CHF – 1.0838
The single currency opened higher this week and jumped to as high as 1.0870, the breach of previous resistance at 1.085 signals low has been formed at 1.0631, hence the erratic rise from there may extend further gain to resistance at 1.0899 (Dec high), however, a daily close above there is needed to retain bullishness, then the aforesaid rise may bring at least a stronger correction of early decline to 1.0950-60, then 1.0975-80, having said that, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1001 resistance, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.
On the downside, whilst initial downside risk is seen for the pullback from 1.0870 to bring weakness t 1.0800, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0763) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A daily close below the lower Kumo (now at 1.0728) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness to 1.0671 support but break of indicated support at 1.0656 is needed to add credence to this view and suggest the entire rebound from 1.0631 has ended, bring further fall towards this level later.
Recommendation: Buy at 1.0780 for 1.0980 with stop below 1.0680.
Â
On the weekly chart, although the single currency rebounded initially last week, renewed selling interest emerged around the Kijun-Sen and price should stay above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0753), bring another rise later. Above 1.0870 would extend the erratic rise from 1.0631 low for retracement of recent decline to indicated resistance at 1.0899 but a weekly close above there is needed to retain bullishness and bring a stronger rebound to 1.0970-75, then test of 1.1001. Looking ahead, only a sustained breach above 1.1001 would signal the fall from 1.1201 has ended, bring further gain to 1.1100 but reckon resistance at 1.1129 would hold on first testing.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0765) and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0753) should contain downside, bring another rise later. Only below previous resistance at 1.0720 would abort and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness towards support at 1.0656 (last week’s low), once this level is penetrated, this would signal the rebound from 1.0631 has ended, bring retest of this level. Looking ahead, euro needs to penetrate indicated strong support at 1.0622-31 to retain bearishness and confirm recent decline from 1.1201 top has resumed and extend further fall to 1.0550-55, then 1.0500-10 but downside should be limited to 1.0400-10 (100% projection of 1.1201-1.0622 measuring from 1.1001) and price should stay well above previous support at 1.0314.
