Weekly
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Marubozu
   •   Time of formation: 14 Nov 2016
   •   Trend bias: Down
Daily
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
   •   Time of formation: 15 Feb 2017
   •   Trend bias: Down
USD/JPY – 109.05
Although the greenback opened higher today and jumped to as high as 110.60, as long as this level holds, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 109.37), however, a daily close below 108.65-70 is needed to signal the rebound from 108.13 has ended, bring retest of this level later, Looking ahead, only a drop below this level would extend recent decline from 118.66 top to 107.85-90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.19-118.66) and possibly 107.40-50 but oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 106.75-80 (1.236 time projection of 118.66-111.59 measuring from 115.51) and 105.90-00 should hold from here, bring rebound later.
On the upside, above said resistance at 110.60 would suggest a temporary low has been formed at 108.13, bring further gain to 111.00 but a daily close above resistance at 111.58 is needed to signal low has been formed, bring further gain towards resistance at 112.20, however, only a sustained breach above this level would provide confirmation, bring correction of recent entire selloff to 112.90 (previous resistance) and possibly towards another previous resistance at 113.54.
Recommendation : Hold short entered at 110.40 for 108.40 with stop above 110.65.
On the weekly chart, as the greenback opened higher this week and a window was formed, suggesting consolidation above last week’s low at 108.13 would be seen, above 110.60 would extend gain to the upper Kumo (now at 111.37), however, a weekly close above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 111.82) is needed to signal low has been formed, bring further gain towards resistance at 112.20-26. Looking ahead, a sustained breach above 120.20 would extend the rebound from 108.13 to 113.00, then test of 113.54 resistance and possibly 114.00-10 but price should falter well below resistance at 115.51.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 109.40-50 cannot be ruled out, reckon support at 108.88 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Only a drop below 108.65-70 would suggest the rebound from 108.13 has ended, bring retest of this level, once this last week’s low is penetrated, this would extend recent selloff from 118.66 to 107.85-90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.19-118.66), then towards 107.00, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 106.50-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 99.01-119.52) and reckon previous resistance at 105.53 (now support) would remain intact.
