Weekly
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting doji
   •   Time of formation: 20 Feb 2017
   •   Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern
   •   Time of formation: 21 Mar 2017
   •   Trend bias: Near term down


Aussie did meet renewed selling interest at 0.7611 (we recommended in our previous update to sell at 0.7570 and a short position was entered) earlier this week and has slipped, retaining our bearishness for the fall from 0.7750 top to bring at least a strong retracement of the rise from 0.7158, hence further decline to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), then towards 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7300-10 and bring rebound later.
On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 0.7560-65 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7612) would cap upside and bring another decline later. Only a daily close above the Kijun-Sen would abort and signal first leg of decline from 0.7750 has ended, bring a stronger rebound to 0,7640-50 but resistance at 0.7680 should cap upside, price should falter below 0.7700-10, bring another decline later. 


Recommendation: Hold short entered at 0.7570 for 0.7390 with stop above 0.7620.


On the weekly chart, as aussie recovered after finding support at 0.7473 (just held above the Kijun-Sen at 0.7468) and consolidation above this level would be seen, however, if our view that top has been formed at 0.7750 is correct, upside should be limited to 0.7590-00 and bring another decline, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7468) would add credence our view that the rebound from 0.7158 has ended at 0.7750, then further fall towards 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750) would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7290-00, bring recovery later.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 0.7575-80 and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7612) should hold, bring another decline later. Above resistance at 0.7641 would risk test of resistance at 0.7680 but only a sustained breach above this level would signal the retreat from 0.7750 has ended instead, bring another bounce towards this level. Looking ahead, only break of 0.7778 resistance would suggest a possible upside break of early established broad range, bring further rise to 2016 high at 0.7835, above there would confirm and encourage for headway to 0.7900 and later towards psychological level at 0.8000.
