• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
• Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/CHF – 1.1565
As the single currency has finally resumed recent upmove as the pair broke above previous resistance at 1.1538, this anticipated rally suggests bullishness remains for medium term upmove to extend headway to 1.1610-15 (50% projection of 1.0833-1.1538 measuring from 1.1260), above there would extend headway to 1.1695-00 (61.8% projection), however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1770-80 and reckon 1.1800-10 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1510-15 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1466) would limit downside and support at 1.1440 should remain intact, bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1423) would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed instead, bring correction to 1.1350-60 and possibly towards support at 1.1299 but only break of latter level would provide confirmation and signal correction of recent upmove has commenced.
Recommendation: Long entered at 1.1355 met target at 1.1555 with 200 points profit and would buy euro again at 1.1475 for 1.1675 with stop below 1.1375.
On the weekly chart, after finding renewed buying interest at 1.1350 last week, the single currency has surged again this week and broke above indicated resistance at 1.1538, reinforcing our bullish view that recent upmove has resumed and upside bias remains for the major rise from 0.8426 low to extend headway to 1.1695-00 (61.8% projection of 1.0833-1.1538 measuring from 1.1260), then towards 1.1760-70 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1840-50 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to this week’s low at 1.1450 and bring such an upmove to aforesaid upside targets. Below support at 1.1350 would defer and risk test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1297) but a weekly close below there is needed to signal a temporary top is formed intends, risk test of support at 1.1259-60, break there would confirm and signal correction of recent rise has commenced for subsequent fall to 1.1190-00, then towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1121) but reckon support at 1.0987 would remain intact.