• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
• Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/CHF – 1.1425
As the single currency has risen again after finding support around 1.1355, adding credence to our view that the pullback from 1.1538 has possibly ended at 1.1259 and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for gain towards resistance at 1.1479, however, a daily close above there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retest of this level later. Only a break of said recent high at 1.1538 would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 1.1600-10, having said that, further sharp move beyond 1.1700 should not be repeated and price should falter below 1.1770-80, bring retreat later.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.1395-00 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1357) would contain downside and bring another rise later. Below support at 1.1343 would bring test of 1.1320-25, break there would suggest the rebound from 1.1259 has ended, bring retest of this level, below there would extend the corrective fall from 1.1538 top for retracement of recent upmove to 1.1185 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538), however, sharp fall below 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should not be repeated and 1.1050 would hold, bring rebound later.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 1.1355 for 1.1555 with stop below 1.1350.
On the weekly chart, as the single currency found support at 1.1259 and has rebounded, suggesting consolidation with upside bias would be seen but break of 1.1479 resistance is needed to signal the pullback from 1.1538 has ended there and bring retest of this level. Only a break of this recent high would revive bullishness and extend the major rise from 0.8426 low for headway to 1.1590-00, then towards 1.1700-10, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1800 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.1355-60 and bring another rise later. Below 1.1320-25 would risk test of said support at 1.1259, break there would shift near term risk to the downside, a weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1231) would suggest a temporary top is formed instead, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538), then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1097) but reckon support at 1.0987 would remain intact.