Weekly
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Marubozu
   •   Time of formation: 14 Nov 2016
   •   Trend bias: Down
Daily
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
   •   Time of formation: 15 Feb 2017
   •   Trend bias: Down
USD/JPY – 112.71
As the greenback has eased after meeting resistance at 114.37, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 112.81) is likely, however, reckon downside would be limited to 111.70-75 and price should stay above the Kijun-Sen (now at 111.25) and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 114.37 would extend recent rise from 108.13 low to 114.60-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 118.66-108.13), then 115.00 but reckon upside would be limited to indicated key resistance at 115.51, bring retreat later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 112.81) cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 112.05-10 and renewed buying interest should emerge around 111.70 and the Kijun-Sen (now at 111.25) should hold, bring another rise later. Below 110.85-90 would suggest top is possibly formed, bring correction to 110.00 but support at 109.59 should remain intact, bring rebound later. Only a daily close below this support at 109.59 would confirm and bring weakness to 108.85-90 but break there is needed to signal the rebound from 108.13 has ended, then retest of this recent low would follow.Â
Recommendation : Buy at 111.70 for 113.70 with stop below 110.70.
On the weekly chart, although dollar edged higher to 114.37 last week, lack of follow through buying suggests initial consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 112.00-10 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 111.70-75 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 114.37 would extend the rise from 108.13 to 114.60-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 118.66-108.13), however, reckon upside would be limited and price should falter well below resistance at 115.51. Looking ahead, only a break of 115.51 would retain bullishness and signal the entire correction from 118.66 has ended at 108.13), bring further rise to 119.50, then 120.00-10 but resistance at 121.69 should remain intact.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 112.00-05 and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 111.25) should hold, bring another rise later. Below support at 111.21 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk weakness to 110.45-50 but only break of indicated previous support at 109.59 would add credence to this view, bring further fall to previous resistance at 109.49. A drop below this level would provide confirmation, bring weakness to 108.80-85, break there would bring retest of 108.13 support, once this level is penetrated, this would revive bearishness an extend recent selloff from 118.66 to 107.85-90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.19-118.66), then towards 107.00, however, reckon downside would be limited to 106.50-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 99.01-119.52) and previous resistance at 105.53 (now support) should remain intact.
