USD/JPY – 111.24
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 111.00
Kijun-Sen level : 110.95
Ichimoku cloud top : 111.12
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 110.68
Original strategy :
Sell at 111.55, Target: 110.35, Stop: 111.90
Position : –
Target : –
Stop : –
New strategy :
Sell at 111.75, Target: 110.65, Stop: 112.10
Position : –
Target : –
Stop : –
As the greenback has rebounded again today, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 110.27 (yesterday’s low) to bring retracement of the decline from 112.20, hence further gain to resistance at 111.59 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 111.75-80 and bring another decline later, below 110.50-55 would suggest the rebound from 110.27 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend the fall from 112.20 to last week’s low at 110.11. Looking ahead, break there is needed to retain downside bias and confirm medium term decline has resumed for further subsequent fall to 109.80-85 (1.618 times projection of 112.20-111.12 measuring from 111.59) which is likely to hold on first testing.
In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on further subsequent recovery as 111.59 resistance should limit upside. Above 112.00 would shift risk to upside and signal the fall from 112.20 has ended, bring retest of this last week’s high first.
