USD/JPY’s decline from 158.86 continued last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 139.57 support. On the upside, break of 148.26 is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.18) and even below.
