USD/JPY’s fall from 158.86 resumed by breaking through 150.29 support last week. The development suggests that whole rally from 139.57 has completed with three waves up to 158.86. Fall from there is now seen as the third leg of the pattern from 161.94 high. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 next. On the upside, above 150.97 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.50).
