USD/JPY’s extended fall last week confirmed short term topping at 158.86. But as a temporary low was formed at 154.97, initial bias is neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 158.86 resistance holds, in case of stronger recovery. Below 154.97 will target 55 D EMA (now at 154.53). Sustained break there will target 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.02).
. Sustained break there will target 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49 next.){kind=link}