USD/JPY stayed in sideway consolidations last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 158.06 will resume the rally from 139.57 to 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25. Firm break there will target 161.94 high. However, break of 155.94 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 153.34).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.02).
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