USD/JPY’s rally from 139.57 resumed last week but retreated quickly after hitting 157.91. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 153.15 support holds. Break of 157.91 will target 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 135.21).
