USD/JPY edged higher again last week but retreated after hitting 154.70. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 151.27 support holds. Above 154.70 will resume the rally from 139.57 towards 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 151.27 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.60).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 134.54).
.){kind=link}