USD/JPY edged higher last week even though it continued to lose upside momentum, as seen in 4H MACD. Further rally is expected as long as 148.84 minor support holds, towards 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. However, break of 148.84 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 146.48 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 139.57 has already completed.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.73).
