USD/JPY’s rise from 139.57 extended to 149.58 last week but turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and some more consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 145.91 support holds. Above 149.58 will resume the rise to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.73).
