USD/JPY edged lower to 143.43 last week recovered notably. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 146.47 resistance will argue that pull back from 149.35 has completed, and rebound from 141.67 is going to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 149.35 first and then 100% projection of 141.67 to 149.35 from 143.43 at 151.11. On the downside, below 143.43 will target 141.67 low instead.
In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 149.47) holds. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for medium term corrective pattern is already set.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 132.73).
