USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 extended higher last week but failed to break through 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 146.06 minor support will suggest rejection by 149.91, and turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 141.67 low. On the upside, sustained break of 149.41 will extend the rebound to 61.8% retracement at 154.19, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94.
In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 149.86) holds. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for medium term corrective pattern is already set.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 132.84).
