USD/JPY’s fall from 151.89 resumed last week and edged lower to 146.65, but recovered again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further fall is in favor with upside capped by 55 4H EMA (now at 148.38). Break of 146.65 will target 145.06 key support level.
In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and break of 151.93 is still in favor at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 127.20 support holds.
. Break of 146.65 will target 145.06 key support level.){kind=link}