USD/JPY failed to break through 151.93 key resistance last week, and fell sharply since then. But downside is contained by 149.17 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 149.17 will be a sign of bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 147.28 support first. Nevertheless, strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Firm break of 151.93 will resume larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, focus stays on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69. This will remain the favored case as long as 127.20 support holds.
