USD/JPY rebounded further to 143.88 last week but reversed since then. The development argues that rise from 137.22 has completed, and fall from 143.88 is probably the third leg of the pattern from 145.06. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 140.43). On the upside, though, above 143.88 will resume the rise to retest 145.06 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.
In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.
. On the upside, though, above 143.88 will resume the rise to retest 145.06 resistance instead.){kind=link}