USD/JPY’s fall from 145.06 extended to as low as 137.22 last week, but recovered after breaching 137.90 resistance turned support briefly. Initial bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 55 4H EMA (now at 140.80) and bring another decline. Sustained break of 137.90 will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below.
In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.
 and bring another decline. Sustained break of 137.90 will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below.){kind=link}