USD/JPY’s rise from 129.62 resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 136.55. Initial bias stays on the upside for 137.90 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 127.20, and target 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 133.00 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.
In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.
