USD/JPY’s decline accelerated to as low as 138.76 last week. The development suggests that it’s already in correction to whole up trend from 102.58. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 151.93 to 145.53 from 146.78 at 136.42. On the upside, above 142.47 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 145.53 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.73).
In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.
