Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.34; (P) 114.70; (R1) 114.95; More…
The break of 114.30 minor support suggests that recovery from 113.47 has completed at 115.05. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 113.47. Break will target 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. On the upside, break of 115.05 will resume the rebound from 113.47. But we’d not expect a break of 116.34 high even in this case.
In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.
