USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9772 extended lower last week and breached 0.9594 support. But the pair quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook is a bit mixed. On the one hand, USD/CHF drew strong support from 0.9443 and rebounded. On the other hand, it is bounded inside medium term falling channel and limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9783. On the downside, firm break of 0.9594 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9437. This could also extend the fall from 1.0342 through 0.9437/43 key support level. On the upside, above 0.9772 will revive the bullish case of reversal and turn bias back to the upside.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 key support level. And long term range trading in 0.9443/1.0342 is extending with another rise. At this point, there is no sign of an up trend yet. Hence, while further rise is expected in USD/CHF, we’ll start to be cautious on loss of momentum above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9996. However, firm break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and would target next key support at 0.9072.
