Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9448; (P) 0.9484; (R1) 0.9546; More…
No change in USD/CHF’s outlook. Intraday bias stays on the upside for further rally. As noted before, prior break of 0.9490 resistance indicates near term reversal. This is supported by bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, there is a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337). USD/CHF should target 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
