USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9698 last week but was supported by near term falling channel line and recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9795) holds, deeper fall is mildly in favor. But we’d expect 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 0.1.0037 at 0.9656 to contain downside and bring rebound. Sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA will argue that the correction from 1.0037 has completed and turn focus to 0.9977 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don’t expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.
In the long term picture, while upside momentum is unconvincing, with 0.9443 key support intact, rise from 0.7065 (2011 low) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 (2000 high) to 0.7065 at 1.1359.
