USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8733 extended to as high as 0.8916 last week, but retreated after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8899. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8773 resistance turned support holds. Sustained trading above 0.8899 will pave the way back to 0.9223 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.8374 is seen as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.
