USD/CHF surged to as high as 0.8733 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations first. Current development suggests that fall from 0.9223 has completed at 0.8374, ahead of 0.8332 key support. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8614 support holds. Above 0.8733 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8899 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.8374 is seen as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.
