USD/CHF stayed in consolidation below 1.0037 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained above 0.9835 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside break of 1.0037 will resume whole rally from 0.9420. And with sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990, USD/CHF should then target a test on 1.0342 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could is a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.
In the long term picture, while upside momentum is unconvincing, with 0.9443 key support intact, rise from 0.7065 (2011 low) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 (2000 high) to 0.7065 at 1.1359.
