USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9613 extended higher last. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.0237 to 0.9613 at 0.9851 first. Decisive break there will add to the case of bullish near term reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9999 next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9851, will suggests that fall from 1.0237 is not finished. Break of 0.9741 support will bring retest of 0.9613 low instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying sideway trading started from 1.0342 (2016 high). Fall from 1.0237 is a leg inside the pattern and could target 0.9186 (2018 low). In case of another rise, break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
