USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9970 last week but reversed from there. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on 0.9841 support. Break there will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 0.9983; h: 1.0027; rs: 0.9970). That should indicate complete of whole rise from 0.9659 and turn outlook bearish for retesting this low. On the upside, above 0.9970 will bring retest of 1.0027 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.9659/1.0237. In any case, decisive break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall. Meanwhile, break of 0.9695 support will target 0.9541 support instead.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
