USD/CHF’s choppy rise from 0.9659 extended to as high as 1.0027 last week before retreating. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9843 support holds. Break of 1.0027 will target 78.6% retracement of 1.0237 to 0.9659 at 1.0113 next. Break will target retest on 1.0237 high.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 1.0237 should have completed at 0.9659 already, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587. But decisive break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral first. Meanwhile, break of 0.9695 support will extend the correction to 0.9541 support instead.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
