USD/CHF’s strong rise last week suggest that pull back from 0.9951 has completed at 0.9803. More importantly, rise from 0.9695 is ready to resume. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Break of 0.9951 will confirm and target 1.0014 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9874 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9803 support and below.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
