USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9862 extended higher last week. The development argues that corrective pull back from 1.0128 has completed with three waves down to 0.9862, ahead of 0.9484 support, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 1.0008 resistance first. Break will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.0128 high. On the downside, though, below 0.9911 minor support will turn focus back to 0.9848 support instead.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the medium term rally from 0.9186 hasn’t completed yet. Break of 1.0128 will target 1.0342 key resistance next (2016 high). On the downside, break of 0.9848 support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9541 key support instead.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
