USD/CHF dipped to 0.9893 last week but downside momentum was very unconvincing. At this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that 1.0342 is still in progress for another low below 0.9812. But even in that case, such decline is seen as a correction and thus, break of 0.9812 should be brief.
Initial bias in USD/CHF remains neutral this week for consolidations above 0.0.9893 temporary low. Deeper fall is expected as long as 0.9999 minor resistance holds. Break below 0.9893 will target 0.9812 and possibly below. Nonetheless, whole decline from 1.0342 is seen as a correction. Hence, we’ll look for bottoming signal below 0.9812. Meanwhile, on the upside, above 0.9999 minor resistance argues that fall from 1.0107 is finished, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In that case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the upside for 1.0107 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, we’re still maintaining that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we’d now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.
The long term outlook in USD/CHF stays a bit mixed for the moment. But in case of another medium term fall, we’d expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.
