USD/CAD stayed in range trading below 1.4541 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 1.4150 are seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4791 high. On the upside, break of 1.4541 will target 100% projection of 1.4150 to 1.4541 from 1.4238 at 1.4629. On the downside, however, break of 1.4238 support will argue that the third leg has already started. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.4150 and below.
In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is in progress and possibly resuming. Next target is 61.8% projections of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270. While rejection by 1.4689 will delay the bullish case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 M EMA (1.3463) holds.
