USD/CAD’s up trend resumed last week and rose to as high as 1.3222. But it then retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise will remains in favor as long as 1.2935 support holds. Break of 1.3222 will target 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. However, firm break of 1.2935 will dampen this bullish case and turn bias to the downside for 1.2818 support.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.
