USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3382 extended to as low as 1.3133 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development suggests that pull back from 1.3382 has completed. And more importantly, rise from 1.3016 is probably not over yet. Initial bias is now on the upside for 1.3382 resistance first. Break will target 1.3564 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.3133 will bring retest of 1.3016 low.
In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.
In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) in in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.
