USD/CAD’s sharp fall last week and break of 1.3222 support affirmed our bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 1.2460 has completed at 1.3793 already. With a temporary low in place at 1.3164, initial bias is neutral this week first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.3387 support turned resistance and bring another decline. Break of 1.3164 will target 1.2968 cluster support, 61.8% retracement of 1.2460 to 1.3793 at 1.2969.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and has completed at 1.3793, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should now indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. In that case, USD/CAD should decline through 1.2460 support to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048.
In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.
