Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3135; (P) 1.3166; (R1) 1.3219; More…
USD/CAD recovered strongly after hitting 1.3112 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, break of 1.3242 support will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3340 resistance first. Break will complete head and should bottom pattern (ls: 1.3180, h: 1.3068, rs: 1.3112). In that case, further rise should be seen back to 1.3664 resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 1.3068 low will firstly resume whole fall from 1.3664. Secondly, it will be a strong sign of medium term bearish reversal.
In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3099) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.
