Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3256; (P) 1.3323; (R1) 1.3368; More…
USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3664 extends to as low as 1.3303 so far, and broke mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3327, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3324). Intraday bias stays on the downside and further fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.3118. Break there will put key channel support (now at 1.2993) into focus. On the upside, above 1.3369 minor resistance will turn intraday neutral first. But even in case of recovery, risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.3664 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might continue further. But the structure of such rise is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2993) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).
