USD/CAD rose to 1.3444 last week but failed to sustain above 1.3385 resistance and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.3160 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3444 will turn bias back to the upside. Larger rally from 1.2061 should target 1.3685 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target to 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will remain the preferred case as long as channel support (now at 1.2937) holds.
In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.
