Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3016; (P) 1.3058; (R1) 1.3123; More…
USD/CAD’s breach of 1.3091 suggests minor resistance suggests that fall from 1.3173 is possibly completed at 1.2986 already. More importantly, the rebound head of medium term channel support saves bullishness in the pair. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.3173 resistance. Break there will indicate completion of fall from 1.3385 and turn outlook bullish again. However, sustained trading below the channel support (now at 1.2982) will carry larger bearish implication and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2982) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 first. Sustained break will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below.
