Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2959; (P) 1.2999; (R1) 1.3031; More…
While downside momentum is diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD, deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. Still, we’d continue to expect strong support from rising channel line (now at 1.2912) to contain downside to finish the correction from 1.3385. On the upside, firm break of 1.3095 resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.3289 resistance.
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2912) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
